Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Waalwijk travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kooi Stadion — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cambuur are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Waalwijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–4 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Waalwijk trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 52% versus Waalwijk 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 52% | Waalwijk 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.191 / defence 0.781 | Waalwijk attack 1.032 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Cambuur games / 27 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Cambuur 2.07 / Waalwijk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.191 / def 0.781 | Waalwijk attack 1.032 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Waalwijk xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Waalwijk kick off?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Cambuur vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Waalwijk part of?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 57% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cambuur and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in?
Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.19) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.41
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.26
1.20
Waalwijk xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
3%
38.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.20 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Cambuur have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 37W 11D 13L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 16W 14D 31L from 61 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.44 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 66%.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 37W 11D 13L in their last 61 games (2.00 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 14D 31L in their last 61 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Waalwijk away?
Cambuur's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.17 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Waalwijk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cambuur
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 53%, Waalwijk 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Cambuur and 67% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Waalwijk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cambuur's games and 70% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Cambuur's matches and 67% of Waalwijk's.
Do Cambuur and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.19 / defence 0.78 against Waalwijk attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 57% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 21%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.