Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Vitesse's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Vitesse arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Cambuur, 4 for Vitesse and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 4–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus Vitesse 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 52% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.31 xG and Vitesse 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.075 / defence 0.922 | Vitesse attack 1.141 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Cambuur games / 75 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 70% | Vitesse 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Cambuur 1.31 / Vitesse 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.075 / def 0.922 | Vitesse attack 1.141 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Vitesse xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Vitesse kick off?
Cambuur vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Cambuur vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Vitesse part of?
Cambuur vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 33% chance of winning, Vitesse a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cambuur and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
Record (7 meetings): Cambuur 3W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 4W.
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.07x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.14x) against Cambuur's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.01
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.84
1.52
Vitesse xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
13.94
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.52 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 43W 15D 17L from 75 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 27L across 75 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 23W 8D 6L from 37 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 12W 11D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.56 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse in 60%.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 43W 15D 17L in their last 75 games (1.92 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 26W 22D 27L in their last 75 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Vitesse away?
Cambuur's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.08 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vitesse in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Vitesse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 60%, Vitesse 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Cambuur) and 65% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Vitesse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cambuur's games and 54% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Cambuur's matches and 65% of Vitesse's.
Do Cambuur and Vitesse tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Vitesse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Vitesse 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.31 xG and Vitesse 1.52 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Vitesse attack 1.14 / defence 0.74, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 33% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 42%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.