Virtus Entella 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale plays host to Virtus Entella versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Comunale — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Virtus Entella 0W, Modena 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 56% versus Modena 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 33% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 0.85 xG and Modena 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.954 / defence 1.086 | Modena attack 1.019 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.110. Modena's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Virtus Entella games / 65 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 25% | Draw 32% | Modena 44%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Virtus Entella 70% | Modena 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 25% | Draw 32% | Modena 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Virtus Entella 0.85 / Modena 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.954 / def 1.086 | Modena attack 1.019 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Modena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Modena xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Modena kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Modena kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Modena?
Virtus Entella 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Modena part of?
Virtus Entella vs Modena is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 25% chance of winning, Modena a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Virtus Entella and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Modena in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Virtus Entella's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.02x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
25%
4.07
32%
3.15
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Modena xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.23 for Modena, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 5W 10D 12L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Virtus Entella.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Modena have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.33 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Modena in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Modena have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.62 PPG; Modena away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Modena in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
0
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-1 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 69%, Modena 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Virtus Entella and 23% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Modena in 46%; Modena in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 31% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 23% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Modena tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Modena in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.85 xG and Modena 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 0.72, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 25% | Draw 32% | Modena 44%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Virtus Entella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Modena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.