Virtus Entella 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale di Chiavari plays host to Virtus Entella versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's home record at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.00 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Juve Stabia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Virtus Entella lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 54% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 40% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.27 xG and Juve Stabia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.018 / defence 1.148 | Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.184. Data: 43 Virtus Entella games / 43 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 37% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 36%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Juve Stabia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Virtus Entella as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 80% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale di Chiavari • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 37% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Virtus Entella 1.27 / Juve Stabia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.018 / def 1.148 | Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Virtus Entella 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia part of?
Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 37% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 1.02x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.93x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.72
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.54
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.27 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 11W 14D 18L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 12L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.33 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 4W 8D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.19 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 13W 18D 12L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Juve Stabia away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.67 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
2
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
From 3 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Virtus Entella 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 71%, Juve Stabia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Virtus Entella) and 48% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Virtus Entella's games and 57% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 48% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari, Regular Season - 6, as Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.27 xG and Juve Stabia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 37% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 36%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 40%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.09 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.