Virtus Entella vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Virtus Entella at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Virtus Entella vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Comunale to face Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Comunale, Virtus Entella have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Virtus Entella. A 1.00 PPG lead over Carrarese (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Virtus Entella lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Virtus Entella winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 54% versus Carrarese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 40% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.34 xG and Carrarese 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.016 / defence 1.169 | Carrarese attack 0.827 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Data: 43 Virtus Entella games / 43 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 41% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 80% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 41% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Virtus Entella 1.34 / Carrarese 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.016 / def 1.169 | Carrarese attack 0.827 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Carrarese xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Carrarese kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese part of?
Virtus Entella vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 41% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Virtus Entella and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Virtus Entella 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Carrarese in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Carrarese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (1.02) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.83x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.67
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Carrarese xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.15 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 14D 18L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Virtus Entella against 1.05 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 11L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.14 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Carrarese away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.67 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Virtus Entella, 62% for Carrarese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Virtus Entella) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Virtus Entella's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Carrarese tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.