Venezia 2-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Feralpisalo encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Venezia welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Venezia have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Feralpisalo have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Venezia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 60% of Feralpisalo's (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Venezia have won 0, Feralpisalo 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Venezia 2–2 Feralpisalo — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Feralpisalo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 69% | Feralpisalo 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.06 xG and Feralpisalo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.436 / defence 1.124 | Feralpisalo attack 0.925 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.436 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 74 games and Feralpisalo's last 36.

Result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 24% | Feralpisalo 21%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.81 | Draw 4.18 | Feralpisalo 4.79. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games).

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