Palermo 2-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palermo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Palermo welcome Ascoli to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ascoli away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ascoli are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Palermo, 1 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 58% versus Ascoli 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 51% | Ascoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.31 xG and Ascoli 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.155 / defence 1.175 | Ascoli attack 0.855 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Data: 74 Palermo games / 74 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 38% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Ascoli 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ascoli (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Ascoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 38% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Palermo 1.31 / Ascoli 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.155 / def 1.175 | Ascoli attack 0.855 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ascoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Ascoli kick off?
Palermo vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Ascoli?
Palermo 2 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Palermo vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Ascoli part of?
Palermo vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 38% chance of winning, Ascoli a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palermo and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Palermo and Ascoli in?
Palermo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.16) and Ascoli's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.26
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Ascoli xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Palermo and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Palermo and 1.18 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo's recent record stands at 25W 26D 23L from 74 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 30L across 74 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.36 PPG, Ascoli on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 16W 11D 10L from 37 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 10W 10D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 26D 23L in their last 74 games (1.36 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 20W 24D 30L in their last 74 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Ascoli away?
Palermo's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.59 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Ascoli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Palermo
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Palermo 2-2 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Ascoli?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 51%, Ascoli 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palermo) and 35% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 27% of games; Ascoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Palermo's recent matches and 49% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palermo's recent games and 35% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Ascoli tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Ascoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Ascoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.31 xG and Ascoli 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ascoli outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Ascoli attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 38% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 51%, Ascoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Ascoli 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.