Sudtirol 0-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sassuolo make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sassuolo are 1.40 PPG clear of Sudtirol in recent Serie B fixtures (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sassuolo in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Sassuolo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Sassuolo 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.042 / defence 1.340 | Sassuolo attack 1.376 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Sudtirol games / 12 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 23% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 51%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 1.96. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Sassuolo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 23% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Sudtirol 1.28 / Sassuolo 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.042 / def 1.340 | Sassuolo attack 1.376 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Sassuolo xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Sassuolo kick off?
Sudtirol vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Sudtirol vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Sassuolo part of?
Sudtirol vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 23% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sudtirol and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Sassuolo in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.04) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.38x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
23%
4.38
26%
3.80
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.23
1.95
Sassuolo xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
14%
7.04
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
30.84
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.95 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 12D 22L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 14W 13D 23L from 50 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.10 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 7D 13L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Sassuolo away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.32 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sassuolo 5-3 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 52%, Sassuolo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sudtirol) and 56% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 32% of games; Sassuolo in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sudtirol's games and 64% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sudtirol's recent games and 56% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Sassuolo 1.95 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.04 / defence 1.34 against Sassuolo attack 1.38 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 23% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 51%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sassuolo's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.20 PPG, Sassuolo 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.