Sudtirol 0-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sassuolo at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Sassuolo encounter.

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Analysis

Sassuolo make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sudtirol have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Sudtirol's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sudtirol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sassuolo's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Sassuolo away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sassuolo are 1.40 PPG clear of Sudtirol over their recent games (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sudtirol's games and 80% of Sassuolo's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading Data

Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 65%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Sassuolo 52%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 65% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Sassuolo 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.042 / defence 1.340 | Sassuolo attack 1.376 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Sassuolo have an above-average attack rating of 1.376, which lifts their away xG to 1.95. Sudtirol's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sassuolo's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 50 games and Sassuolo's last 12.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 23% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 51%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 4.38 | Draw 3.80 | Sassuolo 1.97. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 70% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 80% (last 10 away games).

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