Sudtirol 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sudtirol, 1.10 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sampdoria in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Sampdoria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Sampdoria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.53 xG and Sampdoria 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.971 / defence 1.234 | Sampdoria attack 1.116 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.095. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Sudtirol games / 63 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 36%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sampdoria 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Sampdoria 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Sudtirol 1.53 / Sampdoria 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.971 / def 1.234 | Sampdoria attack 1.116 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sampdoria xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kick off?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria part of?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sudtirol and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.97) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.12x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.04
1.51
Sampdoria xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.51 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 15D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.30 PPG from 63 outings (21W 19D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.30 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 10W 8D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (10W 11D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.27 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 19W 15D 29L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.23 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 52%, Sampdoria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sudtirol) and 55% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sudtirol's games and 71% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sudtirol's recent games and 55% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.53 xG and Sampdoria 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Sampdoria attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 36%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Sampdoria 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.