Palermo 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 26 as Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.00 PPG, Mantova 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palermo, 0 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 48% versus Mantova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 36% | Mantova 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.53 xG and Mantova 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.936 / defence 0.848 | Mantova attack 1.042 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.091. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Palermo games / 25 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 49% | Draw 29% | Mantova 22%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Mantova 4.55. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Mantova 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 49% | Draw 29% | Mantova 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Palermo 1.53 / Mantova 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.936 / def 0.848 | Mantova attack 1.042 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Palermo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Mantova kick off?
Palermo vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Palermo 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Palermo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Mantova part of?
Palermo vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 49% chance of winning, Mantova a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palermo and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Palermo and Mantova in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Mantova (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.94) and Mantova's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.48
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.50
0.96
Mantova xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
20.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Palermo and 0.96 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 9L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.24 PPG, Mantova on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 1W 5D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Mantova have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Mantova away?
Palermo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.50 PPG; Mantova away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Palermo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mantova in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Mantova have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Mantova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 33%, Mantova 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Palermo and 50% for Mantova.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mantova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 67% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Mantova tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 26, as Palermo and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.53 xG and Mantova 0.96 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 1.32, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 49% | Draw 29% | Mantova 22%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 36%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.24 PPG, Mantova 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.