Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Cosenza at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cosenza in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Cosenza and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 55% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.82 xG and Cosenza 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.012 / defence 1.068 | Cosenza attack 0.848 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.156. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Sudtirol games / 73 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 55% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 21%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 55% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sudtirol 1.82 / Cosenza 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.012 / def 1.068 | Cosenza attack 0.848 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cosenza xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cosenza kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cosenza part of?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 55% chance of winning, Cosenza a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sudtirol and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 3 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.01
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Cosenza xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
3%
30.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.05 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 23W 19D 31L from 73 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 27D 28L across 73 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.21 PPG, Cosenza on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 12W 11D 13L from 36 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 8W 13D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 23W 19D 31L in their last 73 games (1.21 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 27D 28L in their last 73 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cosenza away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.31 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 56%, Cosenza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 39% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 28% of games; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 39% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cosenza tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Cosenza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Cosenza 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.82 xG and Cosenza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 1.39, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 55% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 21%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.21 PPG, Cosenza 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.