Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 35%, yet in-form Mantova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Sudtirol welcome Mantova to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mantova's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mantova are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Mantova and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mantova trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 58% versus Mantova 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Mantova 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.762 / defence 0.927 | Mantova attack 0.959 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.100. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Sudtirol games / 73 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 35% | Mantova 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Mantova 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Mantova 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 35% | Mantova 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Sudtirol 1.06 / Mantova 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.762 / def 0.927 | Mantova attack 0.959 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mantova xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Mantova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Sudtirol 0 - 3 Mantova.
Where is Sudtirol vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Mantova part of?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 35% chance of winning, Mantova a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Mantova (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.76) and Mantova's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.87
35%
2.88
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Mantova xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.98 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol come into this having played 73 games, going 20W 26D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.15 PPG from 73 outings (21W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.18 PPG, Mantova on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sudtirol's home form reads 11W 13D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.72 points per game from 36 outings (5W 11D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 26D 27L in their last 73 games (1.18 PPG), while Mantova have gone 21W 21D 31L in their last 73 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Mantova away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.28 PPG; Mantova away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 64%, Mantova 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 56% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 28% of games; Mantova in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sudtirol's games and 58% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 56% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Mantova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mantova run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Sudtirol 0-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mantova outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 35% | Mantova 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mantova's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.18 PPG, Mantova 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.