Sampdoria vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Mantova (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sampdoria, 3 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mantova trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 42% | Mantova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.10 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.021 / defence 0.979 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Sampdoria games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Mantova 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Mantova 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Mantova 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Mantova 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Sampdoria 1.10 / Mantova 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.021 / def 0.979 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Mantova kick off?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Mantova part of?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning, Mantova a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sampdoria and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Mantova 3W.
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.17
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.39
1.28
Mantova xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.28 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 13W 13D 22L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 18W 10D 20L from 48 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.08 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Mantova away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.65 PPG; Mantova away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Mantova have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
From 5 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Mantova have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Mantova 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Mantova in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 48% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Mantova tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mantova in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.