Reggiana 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Parma at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Parma encounter.

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Match Analysis

Reggiana host Parma at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Reggiana — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Reggiana at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Parma away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Reggiana have won 0, Parma 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Reggiana 0–0 Parma — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Parma in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 49% versus Parma 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Parma 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.61 xG and Parma 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.630 / defence 1.223 | Parma attack 1.031 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Parma bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Reggiana's projected output down. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 37 games and Parma's last 75.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 14% | Draw 30% | Parma 57%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 7.41 | Draw 3.34 | Parma 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Parma (57%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games).

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