Como 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Como at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Cosenza meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Como's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Como, 2 for Cosenza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 53% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 47% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.29 xG and Cosenza 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.243 / defence 0.902 | Cosenza attack 1.048 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Data: 75 Como games / 75 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Como 60% | Cosenza 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Como 1.29 / Cosenza 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.243 / def 0.902 | Cosenza attack 1.048 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Como (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cosenza xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Cosenza kick off?
Como vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Cosenza?
Como 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Como vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Cosenza part of?
Como vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Como a 39% chance of winning, Cosenza a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Como and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Como 3W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 2W.
What form are Como and Cosenza in?
Como (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Como's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.05x) against Como's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.16
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Como xG
Total xG
2.40
1.11
Cosenza xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Como and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Como and 1.11 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Como have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 31W 26D 18L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 19W 27D 29L from 75 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.92 PPG from 37 outings (20W 11D 6L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 7W 13D 17L from 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Como have gone 31W 26D 18L in their last 75 games (1.59 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 19W 27D 29L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Cosenza away?
Como's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.92 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Como or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cosenza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-1 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Como 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Como and Cosenza?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 57%, Cosenza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Como) and 30% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Como's recent matches and 40% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Como's recent games and 30% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Cosenza tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 38, as Como and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.29 xG and Cosenza 1.11 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Cosenza attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30%, with Como to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 47%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.