Palermo vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palermo (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palermo face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Palermo's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Palermo are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Palermo winning.
The historical record gives Palermo a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 40% versus Sudtirol 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 45% | Sudtirol 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.56 xG and Sudtirol 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.114 / defence 0.795 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Palermo's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Palermo games / 40 Sudtirol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Palermo 1.56 / Sudtirol 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.114 / def 0.795 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Palermo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sudtirol xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 53% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Record (8 meetings): Palermo 5W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.93x) against Palermo's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.63
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.44
0.87
Sudtirol xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
4%
24.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Palermo and 0.87 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 42 games, going 23W 12D 7L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (9W 20D 13L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 16W 4D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (3W 12D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.95 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 23W 12D 7L in their last 42 games (1.93 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 9W 20D 13L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.48 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Palermo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 29%, Sudtirol 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Palermo) and 33% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Palermo's recent matches and 57% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.