Palermo 4-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Modena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palermo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palermo have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Modena have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palermo and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 57% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 47% | Modena 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.62 xG and Modena 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.134 / defence 1.201 | Modena attack 0.890 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.183. Data: 58 Palermo games / 58 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Modena 3.45. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Palermo 1.62 / Modena 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.134 / def 1.201 | Modena attack 0.890 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Palermo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Modena xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Modena kick off?
Palermo vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Modena?
Palermo 4 - 2 Modena.
Where is Palermo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Modena part of?
Palermo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 45% chance of winning, Modena a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palermo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Palermo 3W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Palermo and Modena in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.13) and Modena's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.78
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.88
1.26
Modena xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Palermo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palermo and 1.26 for Modena, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 20W 21D 17L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 20W 16D 22L from 58 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.40 PPG, Modena on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L).
On the road, Modena have gone 9W 6D 14L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Modena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 20W 21D 17L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Modena away?
Palermo's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.66 PPG; Modena away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Modena specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Modena?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 52%, Modena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Palermo) and 55% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Palermo's games and 62% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Palermo's recent games and 55% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Modena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Modena in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 4-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.62 xG and Modena 1.26 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.13 / defence 1.20 against Modena attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 47%, Modena 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.40 PPG, Modena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.