Lecco 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecco vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Lecco's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco have gone 3W 1D 5L this season (9 games, 1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lecco, 0 for Pisa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Lecco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lecco — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 55% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 55% | Pisa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.18 xG and Pisa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.914 / defence 1.265 | Pisa attack 0.843 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.183. Data: 20 Lecco games / 58 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Lecco 56% | Pisa 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Lecco 1.18 / Pisa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.914 / def 1.265 | Pisa attack 0.843 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Pisa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Pisa kick off?
Lecco vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Pisa?
Lecco 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Lecco vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Pisa part of?
Lecco vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lecco and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Lecco and Pisa in?
Lecco (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.91) and Pisa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.84x) against Lecco's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.37
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.44
1.26
Pisa xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lecco and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lecco and 1.26 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lecco come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 5D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Lecco against 1.15 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lecco's home form reads 3W 1D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Lecco are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Pisa in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Pisa away?
Lecco's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 1.11 PPG; Pisa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lecco or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Pisa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Lecco 1-3 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecco see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 56%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lecco) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 33%; Lecco have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lecco's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecco vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lecco's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Lecco 1-3 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.18 xG and Pisa 1.26 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Pisa attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 55%, Pisa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 1.00 PPG, Pisa 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.