Modena 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 42% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.59 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.050 / defence 0.935 | Cosenza attack 0.844 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.089. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Modena games / 65 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 5.26. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Modena 70% | Cosenza 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.59 / Cosenza 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.050 / def 0.935 | Cosenza attack 0.844 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Modena (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cosenza xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cosenza kick off?
Modena vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Modena 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Modena vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cosenza part of?
Modena vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 53% chance of winning, Cosenza a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Modena and Cosenza in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.84x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.57
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Modena xG
Total xG
2.45
0.86
Cosenza xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
26.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Modena and 0.86 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 17W 30D 18L from 65 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 25L across 65 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Modena against 1.11 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 11W 12D 9L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 8W 11D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 17W 30D 18L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 16W 24D 25L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cosenza away?
Modena's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.41 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cosenza?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 53%, Cosenza 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Modena) and 34% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cosenza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Modena's recent matches and 47% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Modena's recent games and 34% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cosenza tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 28, as Modena and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.59 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.