Mantova 3-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mantova have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cosenza's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cosenza are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.03 xG and Cosenza 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.873 / defence 1.150 | Cosenza attack 1.021 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.192. Data: built from Mantova's last 1 games and Cosenza's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 45%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.60 | Draw 3.72 | Cosenza 2.20. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Mantova's last 1 games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Mantova 1 games, Cosenza 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Mantova 1.03 / Cosenza 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.873 / def 1.150 | Cosenza attack 1.021 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cosenza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Cosenza kick off?
Mantova vs Cosenza kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Cosenza?
Mantova 3 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Mantova vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cosenza part of?
Mantova vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 2) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 28% chance of winning, Cosenza a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Mantova vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.87) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.02x) against Mantova's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 1 games and Cosenza's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
28%
3.60
27%
3.72
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.43
1.40
Cosenza xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Mantova and 1.40 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Mantova's scoring rate against Cosenza's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Cosenza in 0%.
Defensively: Cosenza in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
Mantova (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Mantova vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Mantova or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cosenza in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cosenza?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Cosenza 2-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Cosenza?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Mantova's recent matches and 0% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Mantova's recent games and 0% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Mantova's recent matches and 100% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Cosenza 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Cosenza 3-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.03 xG and Cosenza 1.40 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Cosenza attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 45%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 100%, Cosenza 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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