Juve Stabia 1-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Juve Stabia against 2.00 for Mantova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.43 xG and Mantova 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | Mantova attack 1.004 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.127. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Juve Stabia games / 2 Mantova games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 28% | Mantova 33%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 28% | Mantova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Juve Stabia 1.43 / Mantova 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | Mantova attack 1.004 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mantova xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Mantova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Mantova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 39% chance of winning, Mantova a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Juve Stabia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D. Mantova (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.87) and Mantova's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.00x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.64
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.30
Mantova xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.30 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Juve Stabia against 2.00 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 2.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Mantova's attacking output running into Juve Stabia's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova in 100%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Juve Stabia or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Mantova in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juve Stabia's games and 100% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Juve Stabia's matches and 100% of Mantova's.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Mantova 1-0 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.43 xG and Mantova 1.30 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Mantova attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 28% | Mantova 33%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Mantova 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 2.00 PPG, Mantova 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.