Hellas Verona vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Hellas Verona welcome Modena to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Modena and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 2–3 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Modena trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 52% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Modena 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.64 xG and Modena 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.281 / defence 0.972 | Modena attack 1.123 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Hellas Verona games / 48 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 43% | Draw 27% | Modena 30%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 40% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 43% | Draw 27% | Modena 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Hellas Verona 1.64 / Modena 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.281 / def 0.972 | Modena attack 1.123 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Modena xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Modena kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Modena part of?
Hellas Verona vs Modena is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 43% chance of winning, Modena a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hellas Verona and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Modena in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.28) and Modena's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.64
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.98
1.35
Modena xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.35 for Modena, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 7W 15D 26L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 20W 12D 16L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 0.74 PPG from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
On the road, Modena have gone 8W 7D 8L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.35 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Modena in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 7W 15D 26L in their last 48 games (0.75 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.74 PPG; Modena away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Modena in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
0
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Modena?
From 1 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Modena have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Modena 3-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 48%, Modena 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hellas Verona) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 44% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 52% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Modena tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Modena in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.