Frosinone 0-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Frosinone welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Frosinone — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 3 matches, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 1D 0L — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 2.33 PPG return is 1.23 points per game ahead of Frosinone's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 100% and Juve Stabia 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 67% | Juve Stabia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.11 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.925 / defence 1.181 | Juve Stabia attack 0.963 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.098. Data: built from Frosinone's last 3 games and Juve Stabia's last 3.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.14 | Draw 3.37 | Juve Stabia 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 50% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 33% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Frosinone 1.11 / Juve Stabia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.925 / def 1.181 | Juve Stabia attack 0.963 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Juve Stabia FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia part of?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 32% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Frosinone and Juve Stabia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Frosinone vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 3 games and Juve Stabia's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.37
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.36
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Juve Stabia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.25 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-L-D in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 1.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Frosinone heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Juve Stabia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frosinone vs Juve Stabia Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Frosinone or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Frosinone have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2025, when Frosinone won Frosinone 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Frosinone's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Juve Stabia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Juve Stabia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Frosinone at 100%, Juve Stabia at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Frosinone) and 33% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 67%; Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Juve Stabia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Juve Stabia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Frosinone's games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Frosinone and Juve Stabia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Frosinone's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Juve Stabia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Frosinone's recent matches and 67% of Juve Stabia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 4, as Frosinone and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.11 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Juve Stabia attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 67%, Juve Stabia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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