Feralpisalo 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feralpisalo host Parma at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Feralpisalo's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Feralpisalo have won 0, Parma 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Feralpisalo 0–2 Parma — a Parma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Parma 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Parma 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.14 xG and Parma 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.990 / defence 1.253 | Parma attack 1.259 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.234. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.259, which lifts their away xG to 1.95. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 29 games and Parma's last 67.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 21% | Draw 23% | Parma 55%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 4.72 | Draw 4.27 | Parma 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Parma (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 21% | Draw 23% | Parma 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.14 / Parma 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.990 / def 1.253 | Parma attack 1.259 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Parma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Parma xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Parma FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Parma kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Parma?
Feralpisalo 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Parma part of?
Feralpisalo vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 21% chance of winning, Parma a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Feralpisalo and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feralpisalo vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 0.99x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 29 games and Parma's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
21%
4.72
23%
4.27
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
3.09
1.95
Parma xG
4.72
21%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
3%
33.10
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.95 for Parma, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 7W 6D 16L from 29 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 3L across 29 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feralpisalo have managed 3W 3D 8L from their last 14 home games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 9W 2D 3L across their last 14 away games, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.90 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 66%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Feralpisalo vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Parma in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 7W 6D 16L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Parma have gone 18W 8D 3L in their last 29 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.86 PPG; Parma away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Parma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Parma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Feralpisalo 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 50%, Parma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Feralpisalo and 71% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 36%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 57% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Feralpisalo's matches and 71% of Parma's.
Do Feralpisalo and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 71% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Feralpisalo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Feralpisalo 1-2 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.14 xG and Parma 1.95 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Parma attack 1.26 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 21% | Draw 23% | Parma 55%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 55%, Parma 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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