Ternana 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ternana 1.10 PPG, Cosenza 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ternana, 1 for Cosenza and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Ternana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cosenza trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Cosenza 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Cosenza 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.85 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.804 / defence 0.982 | Cosenza attack 0.800 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.234. Data: 67 Ternana games / 67 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 36%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Cosenza 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 60% | Cosenza 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Ternana 0.85 / Cosenza 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.804 / def 0.982 | Cosenza attack 0.800 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cosenza xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cosenza kick off?
Ternana vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Ternana 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Ternana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cosenza part of?
Ternana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 29% chance of winning, Cosenza a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ternana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 2W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.80) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
29%
3.39
35%
2.89
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.82
0.97
Cosenza xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Ternana and 0.97 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 18W 18D 31L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 16W 24D 27L from 67 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.07 PPG, Cosenza on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 5W 12D 16L from 33 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 18W 18D 31L in their last 67 games (1.07 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 16W 24D 27L in their last 67 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cosenza away?
Ternana's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.24 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ternana have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cosenza?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 52%, Cosenza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Ternana and 27% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 30% of games; Cosenza in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ternana's recent matches and 42% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ternana's recent games and 27% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cosenza tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.85 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.80 / defence 0.98 against Cosenza attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 29% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 36%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Cosenza 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.07 PPG, Cosenza 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.