Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.40 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 1.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 33% versus Vicenza Virtus 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Empoli 33% | Vicenza Virtus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.84 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.969 / defence 0.889 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Empoli games / 3 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 60% | Draw 22% | Vicenza Virtus 17%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Vicenza Virtus 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Vicenza Virtus 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 60% | Draw 22% | Vicenza Virtus 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Empoli 1.84 / Vicenza Virtus 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.969 / def 0.889 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Empoli (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Vicenza Virtus xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 60% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Empoli and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.46
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.71
0.87
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
36.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Empoli and 0.87 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Empoli have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Empoli are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Defensively: Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Empoli or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Vicenza Virtus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Empoli and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Empoli's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Empoli and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.