Empoli 0-2 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Vicenza Virtus at Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 4D 3L at Carlo Castellani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — 0.86 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.10 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.86 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 57% and Vicenza Virtus 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 43% | Vicenza Virtus 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.65 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.936 / defence 1.161 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Empoli games / 7 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 30%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Vicenza Virtus 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 70% | Vicenza Virtus 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Empoli 1.65 / Vicenza Virtus 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.936 / def 1.161 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Empoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Empoli 0 - 2 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 43% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Empoli and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.94x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.71
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.99
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Empoli and 1.34 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.29 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Empoli's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus?
From 1 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Empoli 0-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Vicenza Virtus?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 33%, Vicenza Virtus at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Empoli and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Empoli's games and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Empoli's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Empoli and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Empoli 0-2 at Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.65 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.92 / defence 1.30, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 27% | Vicenza Virtus 30%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Vicenza Virtus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 43%, Vicenza Virtus 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vicenza Virtus win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.