Como 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Como, 3 for Parma and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Como — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 49% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 43% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.26 xG and Parma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.056 / defence 0.937 | Parma attack 1.191 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.221. Data: 63 Como games / 63 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Como 40% | Parma 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Como 1.26 / Parma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.056 / def 0.937 | Parma attack 1.191 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Parma xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Parma kick off?
Como vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Parma?
Como 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Como vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Parma part of?
Como vs Parma is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Como a 34% chance of winning, Parma a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Como and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
Record (5 meetings): Como 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 3W.
What form are Como and Parma in?
Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Como's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.19x) against Como's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Como xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Parma xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Como and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Como and 1.36 for Parma, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 23D 17L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.81 PPG from 63 outings (33W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Como against 1.81 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 15W 10D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.61 points per game from 31 outings (14W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.52 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Parma in coming into this match?
Como have gone 23W 23D 17L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Parma have gone 33W 15D 15L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Parma away?
Como's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.77 PPG; Parma away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Como or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Parma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Como
4
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
From 10 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Parma have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Como and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Como 1-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 52%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Como) and 52% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma in 32%; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Como's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Como's recent games and 52% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Parma tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Parma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Parma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.26 xG and Parma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Parma attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.46 PPG, Parma 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.