Ternana 0-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 26 as Ternana welcome Lecco to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Ternana — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecco have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Ternana have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ternana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lecco in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ternana, 0 for Lecco and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Lecco in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 64% and Lecco 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Lecco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.72 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.845 / defence 0.918 | Lecco attack 0.852 / defence 1.531. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.221. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.531 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Ternana games / 25 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 55% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Lecco 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ternana (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 60% | Lecco 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 55% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Ternana 1.72 / Lecco 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.845 / def 0.918 | Lecco attack 0.852 / def 1.531 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ternana (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lecco xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Lecco kick off?
Ternana vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Lecco?
Ternana 0 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Ternana vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Lecco part of?
Ternana vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 55% chance of winning, Lecco a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ternana and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Lecco 0W.
What form are Ternana and Lecco in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Lecco (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ternana's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.95
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.67
0.96
Lecco xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
27.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ternana and 0.96 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Lecco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.00 PPG, Lecco on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ternana's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.08 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lecco in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Lecco in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Lecco away?
Ternana's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.08 PPG; Lecco away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ternana
1
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Lecco have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Lecco?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 54%, Lecco 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Ternana) and 62% (Lecco).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 38% of games; Lecco in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ternana's games and 62% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ternana's recent games and 62% of Lecco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Lecco tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lecco in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ternana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Lecco finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.72 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Lecco attack 0.85 / defence 1.53, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 55% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Lecco 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lecco's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.00 PPG, Lecco 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.