Brescia 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pisa (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brescia face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Brescia welcome Pisa to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Pisa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brescia, 3 for Pisa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Pisa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 37% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.868 / defence 1.127 | Pisa attack 1.119 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Data: 71 Brescia games / 71 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 21% | Draw 30% | Pisa 49%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.04. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 70% | Pisa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 21% | Draw 30% | Pisa 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Brescia 0.90 / Pisa 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.868 / def 1.127 | Pisa attack 1.119 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Pisa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Pisa kick off?
Brescia vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Brescia 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Brescia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Pisa part of?
Brescia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 21% chance of winning, Pisa a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Brescia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 3 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Brescia and Pisa in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brescia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
21%
4.77
30%
3.33
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.40
1.49
Pisa xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
21.19
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Brescia and 1.49 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 18W 29D 24L from 71 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 30W 20D 21L across 71 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.17 PPG, Pisa on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 9W 16D 9L from 34 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 12W 9D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.48 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 63%.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 18W 29D 24L in their last 71 games (1.17 PPG), while Pisa have gone 30W 20D 21L in their last 71 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.26 PPG; Pisa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Brescia
3
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Pisa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 56%, Pisa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Brescia) and 47% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Pisa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Brescia's games and 59% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Brescia's recent games and 47% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Pisa tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Brescia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.49 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Pisa attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 21% | Draw 30% | Pisa 49%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.17 PPG, Pisa 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.