Brescia 3-3 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brescia host Modena at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Modena — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brescia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Modena in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Brescia have won 2, Modena 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.18 xG and Modena 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.070 / defence 1.212 | Modena attack 0.851 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Data: 56 Brescia games / 56 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 60% | Modena 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Modena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Brescia 1.18 / Modena 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.070 / def 1.212 | Modena attack 0.851 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Brescia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Modena xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Modena kick off?
Brescia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Modena?
Brescia 3 - 3 Modena.
Where is Brescia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Modena part of?
Brescia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 36% chance of winning, Modena a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Brescia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
Record (4 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Brescia and Modena in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Modena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.07) and Modena's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.09
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.09
Modena xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Brescia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Brescia and 1.09 for Modena, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 21D 19L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (15W 25D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.23 PPG, Modena on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (4W 16D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Modena in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 16W 21D 19L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 25D 16L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Modena away?
Brescia's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.41 PPG; Modena away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Modena specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 52%, Modena 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Brescia) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Brescia's games and 63% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Brescia's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Modena tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Modena in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Modena share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Modena finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.18 xG and Modena 1.09 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Modena attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Modena 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Modena 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.23 PPG, Modena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.