Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Sudtirol are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 1 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.23 xG and Sudtirol 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.878 / defence 1.213 | Sudtirol attack 0.976 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.160. Data: 1 Benevento games / 39 Sudtirol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Benevento 1.23 / Sudtirol 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.878 / def 1.213 | Sudtirol attack 0.976 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sudtirol xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Sudtirol kick off?
Benevento vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Benevento 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Benevento vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Sudtirol part of?
Benevento vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benevento and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Benevento and Sudtirol in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.88) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.98x) against Benevento's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.59
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.60
1.37
Sudtirol xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Benevento and 1.37 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 0%.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Benevento or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Sudtirol?
From 3 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Benevento's recent matches and 0% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Benevento's recent games and 0% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 2, as Benevento and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.23 xG and Sudtirol 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Sudtirol attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 33% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 100%, Sudtirol 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benevento conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.