Benevento 0-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Perugia meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Benevento are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia away from home this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 3 games (100%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.83 for Benevento, 1.50 for Perugia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Perugia — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 33% | Perugia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.14 xG and Perugia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.336 / defence 1.133 | Perugia attack 0.868 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.358. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Perugia's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Benevento games / 6 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Perugia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 67% | Perugia 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.14 / Perugia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.336 / def 1.133 | Perugia attack 0.868 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Perugia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Perugia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Perugia kick off?
Benevento vs Perugia kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Perugia?
Benevento 0 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Benevento vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Benevento vs Perugia part of?
Benevento vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 31% chance of winning, Perugia a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Perugia in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.34x the league average against Perugia's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.87x) against Benevento's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
31%
3.23
29%
3.49
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.47
1.34
Perugia xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Benevento and 1.34 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Benevento against 1.50 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Benevento's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Perugia travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.33 scored and 0.83 conceded. Benevento's scoring rate against Perugia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Perugia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Perugia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Perugia have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Perugia away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Perugia away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Benevento or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Perugia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Perugia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Perugia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Perugia 3-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Benevento) and 0% (Perugia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benevento) and 33% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Perugia in 100%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Perugia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benevento's recent matches and 0% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Perugia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Perugia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Benevento's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 7, as Benevento and Perugia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.14 xG and Perugia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.34 / defence 1.13 against Perugia attack 0.87 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 31% | Draw 29% | Perugia 40%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 33%, Perugia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.83 PPG, Perugia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.