Benevento vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 38%, yet in-form Padova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Benevento vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Padova have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Padova are the stronger side — 1.27 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Padova — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 67% and Padova 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 33% | Padova 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.31 xG and Padova 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.840 / defence 1.168 | Padova attack 0.919 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Benevento games / 41 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 27% | Padova 35%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Padova 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 67% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 27% | Padova 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.31 / Padova 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.840 / def 1.168 | Padova attack 0.919 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Benevento (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Padova xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Padova kick off?
Benevento vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Padova part of?
Benevento vs Padova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 38% chance of winning, Padova a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Padova in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L. Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.84) and Padova's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.92x) against Benevento's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.75
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.55
1.24
Padova xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Benevento and 1.24 for Padova, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Padova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Padova in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Padova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Padova have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Benevento or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Padova in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Benevento, 67% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Benevento and 33% for Padova.
On the defensive side: Padova in 33%; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 67% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Padova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Padova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.