Udinese 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Udinese face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Empoli at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Udinese — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Udinese) versus 0.70 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Udinese, 1 for Empoli and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Udinese 0–0 Empoli — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Empoli 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 45% | Empoli 34%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Udinese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.24 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.862 / defence 1.110 | Empoli attack 0.706 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.200. Empoli's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Udinese's last 74 games and Empoli's last 74.
Result probabilities: Udinese 42% | Draw 31% | Empoli 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.38 | Draw 3.19 | Empoli 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 70% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 42% | Draw 31% | Empoli 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Udinese 1.24 / Empoli 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.862 / def 1.110 | Empoli attack 0.706 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Udinese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Empoli xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Empoli kick off?
Udinese vs Empoli kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Udinese 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Udinese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Empoli part of?
Udinese vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Udinese and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Udinese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.86) and Empoli's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 74 games and Empoli's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.19
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.18
0.94
Empoli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Udinese and 0.94 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 16W 31D 27L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 18W 21D 35L from 74 games, 1.01 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.07 PPG, Empoli on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 37 home games (7W 19D 11L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 6W 12D 19L from their last 37 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.85 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 16W 31D 27L in their last 74 games (1.07 PPG), while Empoli have gone 18W 21D 35L in their last 74 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Empoli away?
Udinese's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.08 PPG; Empoli away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won Udinese 4-1 Empoli.
Udinese's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Udinese
4
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Empoli?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 65%, Empoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Udinese) and 32% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Empoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Udinese's games and 46% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Udinese's recent games and 32% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Udinese's recent matches and 70% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.24 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Empoli attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 42% | Draw 31% | Empoli 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 45%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.07 PPG, Empoli 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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