Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Napoli have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.10 for Napoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Napoli — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Napoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 45% | Napoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Napoli 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.330 / defence 0.976 | Napoli attack 1.155 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.186. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 73 Fiorentina games / 74 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | Napoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Napoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Napoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | Napoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Fiorentina 1.63 / Napoli 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.330 / def 0.976 | Napoli attack 1.155 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Napoli xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Napoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Napoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 43% chance of winning, Napoli a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fiorentina and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 1 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Napoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Napoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.33) and Napoli's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.16x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 73/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.81
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.97
1.34
Napoli xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.34 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 30W 19D 24L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Napoli's form line: 40W 18D 15L from 73 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.89 for Napoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (18W 10D 8L).
On the road, Napoli have gone 20W 9D 7L from 36 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.71 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Napoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 30W 19D 24L in their last 73 games (1.49 PPG), while Napoli have gone 40W 18D 15L in their last 73 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.78 PPG; Napoli away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Napoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-3 on 4 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Napoli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 61%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 44% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 36%; Napoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 44% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Napoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Napoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Napoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 37, as Fiorentina and Napoli drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Napoli 1.34 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Napoli attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | Napoli 30%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 45%, Napoli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.49 PPG, Napoli 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.