Lecce 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lecce and Empoli meet at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Empoli arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lecce, 1 for Empoli and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lecce 37% | Empoli 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 37% | Empoli 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.95 xG and Empoli 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.756 / defence 1.362 | Empoli attack 0.955 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.314. Lecce's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Lecce games / 49 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 21% | Draw 24% | Empoli 55%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Empoli 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lecce 20% | Empoli 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 21% | Draw 24% | Empoli 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Lecce 0.95 / Empoli 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.756 / def 1.362 | Empoli attack 0.955 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Empoli (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Empoli kick off?
Lecce vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Lecce 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Lecce vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Empoli part of?
Lecce vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 21% chance of winning, Empoli a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lecce and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
Record (4 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 2 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Lecce and Empoli in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lecce vs Empoli?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.76x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.95x) against Lecce's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
21%
4.81
24%
4.19
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.66
1.71
Empoli xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
4%
26.63
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Lecce and 1.71 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce come into this having played 49 games, going 10W 16D 23L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 49 outings (12W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Lecce against 1.02 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lecce's home form reads 8W 7D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.76 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 10W 16D 23L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Empoli have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Empoli away?
Lecce's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.29 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Empoli?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 38%, Empoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 42% of games; Empoli in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lecce's recent matches and 46% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Empoli tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.95 xG and Empoli 1.71 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.76 / defence 1.36 against Empoli attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 21% | Draw 24% | Empoli 55%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 37%, Empoli 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.94 PPG, Empoli 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.