Inter 2-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter and Genoa meet at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inter have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Inter's favour (2.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Inter have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Genoa managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Inter winning.
The historical record gives Inter a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Genoa — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 45% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 56% | Genoa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.46 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.726 / defence 0.934 | Genoa attack 0.962 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.200. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.726 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Inter games / 64 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 18% | Genoa 15%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Genoa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 50% | Genoa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 18% | Genoa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG Inter 2.46 / Genoa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.726 / def 0.934 | Genoa attack 0.962 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Inter (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Genoa xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Genoa kick off?
Inter vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Genoa?
Inter 2 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Inter vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Genoa part of?
Inter vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 68% chance of winning, Genoa a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Inter and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
Record (7 meetings): Inter 4W | Draws 3 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Inter and Genoa in?
Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter's attacking strength (1.73x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.96x) against Inter's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.70
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Inter xG
Total xG
3.53
1.08
Genoa xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
1%
78.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Inter and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Inter and 1.08 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Inter have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 45W 10D 9L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 16W 22D 26L from 64 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.29 PPG from 31 outings (22W 5D 4L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 7W 11D 13L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inter are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Genoa in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 45W 10D 9L in their last 64 games (2.27 PPG), while Genoa have gone 16W 22D 26L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Genoa away?
Inter's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.29 PPG; Genoa away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Inter or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Genoa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Inter have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Inter
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Inter have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Genoa?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 61%, Genoa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Inter) and 48% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Genoa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Inter's games and 58% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Inter's matches and 48% of Genoa's.
Do Inter and Genoa tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Genoa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Genoa 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.46 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.73 / defence 0.93 against Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 68% | Draw 18% | Genoa 15%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 56%, Genoa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.