Hellas Verona 1-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Monza at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, Monza 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Monza trading profile (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 52% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 40% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Monza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.826 / defence 1.041 | Monza attack 0.811 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.163. Data: 48 Hellas Verona games / 48 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Monza 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Hellas Verona 1.02 / Monza 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.826 / def 1.041 | Monza attack 0.811 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Monza xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Monza kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 Monza.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Monza part of?
Hellas Verona vs Monza is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Monza a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hellas Verona and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.83) and Monza's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.24
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.00
0.98
Monza xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.98 for Monza, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 12D 26L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
On the road, Monza have gone 8W 6D 8L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.19 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 12D 26L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Monza have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.14 PPG; Monza away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 54%, Monza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 36% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 32% of games; Monza in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 36% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Monza tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Monza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Monza 0.98 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Monza outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Monza attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Monza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.