AS Roma 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Lecce in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lecce (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lecce's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for AS Roma against 1.30 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Lecce and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended AS Roma 1–1 Lecce — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Lecce 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 46% | Lecce 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.68 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.323 / defence 0.830 | Lecce attack 0.926 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.179. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.323 — their 1.68 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AS Roma's last 48 games and Lecce's last 48.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.80 | Draw 4.13 | Lecce 4.94. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Lecce 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG AS Roma 1.68 / Lecce 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.323 / def 0.830 | Lecce attack 0.926 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lecce xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Lecce kick off?
AS Roma vs Lecce kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is AS Roma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lecce part of?
AS Roma vs Lecce is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 56% chance of winning, Lecce a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Lecce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will AS Roma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.32) and Lecce's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.93x) against AS Roma's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 48 games and Lecce's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.13
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.58
0.91
Lecce xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.91 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 11D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (11W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.90 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Lecce
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Lecce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lecce away?
AS Roma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.87 PPG; Lecce away: 0.96 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lecce in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between AS Roma and Lecce, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Lecce 0-4 AS Roma on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lecce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lecce?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Lecce 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for AS Roma and 26% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lecce in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Lecce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 44% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Lecce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 26% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lecce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AS Roma's recent matches and 74% of Lecce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.68 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Lecce attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 46%, Lecce 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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