Genoa 2-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 17 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Venezia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Venezia have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Genoa, 1 for Venezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Venezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Venezia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.871 / defence 0.908 | Venezia attack 0.798 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.279. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Genoa games / 24 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 31% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Venezia 4.76. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 17 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 48% | Draw 31% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.50 / Venezia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.871 / def 0.908 | Venezia attack 0.798 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Genoa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Venezia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Venezia kick off?
Genoa vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Genoa 2 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Genoa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Venezia part of?
Genoa vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 48% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 2 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Genoa and Venezia in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Venezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.87x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.80x) against Genoa's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.18
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.43
0.93
Venezia xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
21.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Genoa and 0.93 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 22D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.42 PPG from 62 outings (25W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Genoa against 1.42 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 10W 12D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.44 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 18W 22D 22L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 13D 24L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Venezia away?
Genoa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.35 PPG; Venezia away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Genoa
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Venezia?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 55%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Genoa) and 64% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 64% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Venezia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Venezia 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Venezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 48% | Draw 31% | Venezia 21%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Venezia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.23 PPG, Venezia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.