Genoa 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.20 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Genoa have won 1, Bologna 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.842 / defence 1.163 | Bologna attack 1.015 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.240. Data: 45 Genoa games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 29% | Draw 33% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Bologna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 29% | Draw 33% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Genoa 1.27 / Bologna 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.842 / def 1.163 | Bologna attack 1.015 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bologna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Bologna kick off?
Genoa vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Genoa 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Genoa vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Bologna part of?
Genoa vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 29% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Genoa and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Genoa and Bologna in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Genoa vs Bologna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.05
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.47
Bologna xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Genoa and 1.47 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 13W 15D 17L from 45 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 7L across 45 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 7W 10D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.36 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Bologna in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 19D 7L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Bologna away?
Genoa's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.45 PPG; Bologna away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Genoa or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Genoa
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Bologna?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Bologna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 54% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Genoa's games and 59% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Bologna tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bologna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.47 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Bologna attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 29% | Draw 33% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Bologna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.