Genoa 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Bologna.

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Fixture Analysis

Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.20 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 1 for Bologna and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2024, ended Genoa 2–0 Bologna — a Genoa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Bologna 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.842 / defence 1.163 | Bologna attack 1.015 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.240. Data: built from Genoa's last 45 games and Bologna's last 45.

Result probabilities: Genoa 29% | Draw 33% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.43 | Draw 3.05 | Bologna 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).

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