Frosinone 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Frosinone at 1.20 PPG versus Genoa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 1, Genoa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Genoa trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 48% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 48% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.78 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.159 / defence 1.181 | Genoa attack 0.713 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.139. Data: 12 Frosinone games / 12 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Genoa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 80% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Frosinone 1.78 / Genoa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.159 / def 1.181 | Genoa attack 0.713 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Genoa xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Genoa kick off?
Frosinone vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Frosinone vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Genoa part of?
Frosinone vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 57% chance of winning, Genoa a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Frosinone and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
57%
1.77
23%
4.30
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
Genoa xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
29.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.96 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 28W 11D 11L from 50 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 12L across 50 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.90 PPG, Genoa on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 10W 6D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.32 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 28W 11D 11L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while Genoa have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Genoa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.32 PPG; Genoa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Genoa?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 44%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Genoa in 32%; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Frosinone's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Genoa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.78 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Genoa attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 57% | Draw 23% | Genoa 20%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 48%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.90 PPG, Genoa 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.