Empoli 3-4 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Empoli welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sassuolo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.00 PPG, Sassuolo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Empoli, 2 for Sassuolo and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sassuolo trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Sassuolo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.08 xG and Sassuolo 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.666 / defence 1.043 | Sassuolo attack 1.039 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.139. Empoli's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Empoli games / 50 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Sassuolo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Sassuolo 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Empoli 1.08 / Sassuolo 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.666 / def 1.043 | Sassuolo attack 1.039 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sassuolo xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sassuolo kick off?
Empoli vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Empoli 3 - 4 Sassuolo.
Where is Empoli vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Sassuolo part of?
Empoli vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 32% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 2W.
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.67x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.55
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Sassuolo xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Empoli and 1.24 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 14D 23L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 23L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.06 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 9W 4D 11L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sassuolo away?
Empoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Sassuolo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Empoli
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sassuolo 2-3 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Sassuolo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 67% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 42% of games; Sassuolo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 67% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Empoli 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Empoli 3-4 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.08 xG and Sassuolo 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Sassuolo attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 32% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 40%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Sassuolo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Sassuolo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.