Empoli 3-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monza (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Monza arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Empoli, 2 for Monza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 36% | Monza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.91 xG and Monza 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.670 / defence 1.345 | Monza attack 0.982 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.079. Empoli's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Empoli games / 58 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 29% | Monza 48%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 2.08. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 29% | Monza 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Empoli 0.91 / Monza 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.670 / def 1.345 | Monza attack 0.982 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Monza (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Monza xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Monza kick off?
Empoli vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Monza?
Empoli 3 - 0 Monza.
Where is Empoli vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Monza part of?
Empoli vs Monza is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 23% chance of winning, Monza a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Empoli and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 2W.
What form are Empoli and Monza in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.67x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.98x) against Empoli's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
23%
4.32
29%
3.47
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.34
1.43
Monza xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.8 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Empoli and 1.43 for Monza, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 17D 28L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.33 PPG from 58 outings (20W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Empoli against 1.33 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 9W 6D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Monza in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 17D 28L in their last 58 games (0.97 PPG), while Monza have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.14 PPG; Monza away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won 3-0 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Monza?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Monza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Monza?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 34%, Monza 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 45% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 45% of games; Monza in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Empoli's recent matches and 45% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 45% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Monza tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Monza in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Empoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Monza 3-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.91 xG and Monza 1.43 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Monza attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 23% | Draw 29% | Monza 48%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Monza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.97 PPG, Monza 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.