Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Bologna against 1.70 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bologna, 3 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Fiorentina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.77 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.277 / defence 0.753 | Fiorentina attack 0.983 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.122. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Bologna games / 61 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Bologna 1.77 / Fiorentina 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.277 / def 0.753 | Fiorentina attack 0.983 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bologna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Fiorentina kick off?
Bologna vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Bologna 2 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Bologna vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Fiorentina part of?
Bologna vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 58% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.28x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.98x) against Bologna's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
58%
1.71
25%
3.94
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.60
0.83
Fiorentina xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
36.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 21D 16L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 26W 15D 20L from 61 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Bologna against 1.52 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (16W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Fiorentina away?
Bologna's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.93 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 43%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 37% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 37% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Fiorentina 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.77 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 0.75 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.52 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.