Bologna 3-3 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Juventus meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus's record over their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Juventus have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Juventus's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for Juventus and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Bologna 1–1 Juventus — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Juventus — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Juventus 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.31 xG and Juventus 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.119 / defence 0.664 | Juventus attack 0.982 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.196. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.664), which is pulling Juventus's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 74 games and Juventus's last 74.
Result probabilities: Bologna 48% | Draw 31% | Juventus 21%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.08 | Draw 3.26 | Juventus 4.70. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 48% | Draw 31% | Juventus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Bologna 1.31 / Juventus 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.119 / def 0.664 | Juventus attack 0.982 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Bologna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Juventus xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Juventus kick off?
Bologna vs Juventus kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 20 May 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Bologna 3 - 3 Juventus.
Where is Bologna vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Juventus part of?
Bologna vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 48% chance of winning, Juventus a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bologna and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Bologna vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.12) and Juventus's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.98x) against Bologna's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 74 games and Juventus's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.26
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.09
0.78
Juventus xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bologna and 0.78 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 25D 17L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 40W 19D 15L from 74 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Bologna against 1.88 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 37 home games (19W 13D 5L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 17W 9D 11L from their last 37 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.42 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Juventus in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 32W 25D 17L in their last 74 games (1.64 PPG), while Juventus have gone 40W 19D 15L in their last 74 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Juventus away?
Bologna's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.89 PPG; Juventus away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bologna or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Juventus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bologna and Juventus, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won Juventus 3-0 Bologna on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bologna
6
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 40%, Juventus 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Bologna and 35% for Juventus.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Juventus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bologna's recent matches and 38% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bologna's recent games and 35% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bologna's recent matches and 60% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Juventus share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Juventus finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.31 xG and Juventus 0.78 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventus outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.66 against Juventus attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 48% | Draw 31% | Juventus 21%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.64 PPG, Juventus 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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