Bologna vs Cagliari – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 4D 4L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bologna, 1.30 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Bologna are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Cagliari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.54 xG and Cagliari 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.851 / defence 1.036 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 31%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Cagliari 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Bologna 1.54 / Cagliari 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.851 / def 1.036 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Bologna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cagliari xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 44% chance of winning, Cagliari a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 6W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.83x) against Bologna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.00
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
Cagliari xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bologna and 1.25 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 10D 18L from 48 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 22L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Bologna against 1.17 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.12 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
From 9 meetings on record, Bologna have won 6, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, Cagliari 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 67% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games; Cagliari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bologna's recent matches and 62% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 67% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.